ANALYTICAL REVIEW OF THE POPULATION, VITAL AND MIGRATION STATISTICS OF THE POPULATION IN THE EASTERN REGION OF THE REPUBLIC OF NORTH MACEDONIA FOR THE PERIOD 2010-2024

Abstract

To provide an analytical overview of the population, vital, and migration characteristics of the population in the Eastern Region of the Republic of North Macedonia for the period 2010–2024.
A descriptive research approach was employed, based on a retrospective analysis of data obtained from the MakStat database of the State Statistical Office of the Republic of North Macedonia, the Birth Registration Form (Form No. 3-21-63), the Statistical Death Form (Form DEM-2), and the HFA-DB (Health for All Database) of the World Health Organization.
The population of the Eastern Region of the Republic of North Macedonia declined from 181.858 in 2002 to 150.234 according to the 2021 census, with an estimated population of 146.395 in 2024, representing a decrease of approximately 19% compared to 2002 and 2,6% compared to 2021. The young population recorded a decline of 28,8% by 2024, leading to long-term consequences for the demographic balance. The elderly population showed an alarming increase of 47,6%, resulting in an ageing index of 176,2%. The dependency ratio reached its highest value in 2024, with 57 dependent persons per 100 working-age individuals, placing the region in the category of a moderate dependency burden and posing challenges for the sustainability of the pension fund and healthcare system. The analysis indicates a pronounced and continuous declining trend in the birth rate in the Eastern Region, with 936 live births recorded in 2024, representing a reduction of 47,3% and indicating a profound demographic transformation. Persistently low levels of fertility were observed, with a total fertility rate of 1,2 children per woman and a general fertility rate of 31,7 births per 1.000 women of reproductive age in 2024. Up to 2019, mortality levels were moderate, followed by an increase exceeding the threshold of 13‰, with the crude death rate peaking at 17,9 deaths per 1.000 population. The infant mortality rate in 2024 was 1,1 per 1.000 live births, while the long-term trend indicates consistently low values, reflecting effective preventive healthcare. Throughout the analyzed period, a persistently negative natural increase rate was observed, with the most pronounced decline registered in 2021 (-10,1‰), largely attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic. The vital index remained low, indicating a continuous demographic crisis, with 47,4 live births per 100 deaths. Net internal migration showed negative values, with the largest negative balance recorded in 2015 (-232 persons) and the smallest in 2010 (-44 persons), indicating that out-migration exceeded in-migration. A positive net external migration was recorded during the period 2011–2019, followed by increased emigration between 2020 and 2022. A high net external migration rate was registered in 2024 (5,9‰), contributing to the partial filling of demographic gaps.
Demographic trends in the Eastern Region indicate continuous depopulation, pronounced population ageing, and the absence of natural population replacement, further intensified by negative net internal migration.
The implementation of integrated demographic and socio-economic policies aimed at increasing fertility, retaining the young population, and improving the migration balance in the Eastern Region is essential.