THE INSISTENCE ON TRANSACTIONALISM AND DONALD TRUMP’S FOREIGN POLICY – SOME LONG-TERM RISKS AND DISCONNECTS
Keywords:
international relations, transactionalism, Donald Trump, United States, UkraineAbstract
Donald Trump’s second term as president of the United States has widely been expected to usher in a number of novel political developments in the foreign policy realm and contribute to major geopolitical recalibrations and even crucial realignments, marking a clean break with many international policies associated with Joe Biden’s administration, in part due to the non-traditional leadership style employed by the current commander-in-chief. This has largely turned out to be the case during Trump’s first 100 days, with his foreign policy frequently characterized as ticking the boxes of a transactionalist approach to international relations, emphasizing win-lose negotiations, short-term gains, a skeptical attitude towards multilateralism, and a willingness to downplay the value of historical alliances. The paper employs a qualitative methodology, which includes integrated analysis and entails synthesis that weaves together content from a multitude of secondary sources within the social sciences. It fulfils three primary objectives. Firstly, by examining the likely transformations in the power dynamics within the international system, it suggests that transactionalism is unlikely to bring about long-term benefits from the standpoint of the United States’ national interests because the country, in accordance with the prevailing trends, is by no means guaranteed to remain the undisputed hegemon in the conceivable future. Secondly, in terms of Trump’s stated personal ambition to leave a lasting legacy as a peacemaker in international relations, especially with regard to the Russo-Ukrainian war, the paper advances the argument that a transactional modus operandi in international relations may turn out to be counter-productive in terms of a satisfactory resolution to the conflict, especially given that it may be at odds with more promising methods of applying pressure on Russia. Thirdly, subscribing to a transactionalist perspective may actually turn out to contradict some of the tenets of political conservatism and may to a degree result in alienating the president’s own supporters, thus reducing his political capital among the members of some of his core constituencies.
References
Abramowicz, V. (2022). The merits of transactionalism. The Interpreter.
Balson, D. (2025). Most Trump Supporters Also Back Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal.
Barnes, J. (2024). How Trump would have made Putin think twice before invading Ukraine. The Telegraph.
Bashirov, G. & Yilmaz, I. (2020). The rise of transactionalism in international relations: evidence from Turkey’s relations with the European Union. Australian Journal of International Affairs, 74 (2), 165-184.
Belton, C. (2025). Russia worries about a U.S. tilt toward Ukraine after mineral deal. The Washington Post.
Bingham, A.J. (2023). From Data Management to Actionable Findings: A Five-Phase Process of Qualitative Data Analysis. International Journal of Qualitative Methods, 22.
Bollfrass, A.K. (2025). Are nuclear weapons an option for Ukraine? The International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Brooks, S. & Wohlforth, W. (2005). International Relations Theory and the Case Against Unilateralism. Dartmouth Scholarship 2973, 3 (3), 509-524.
Caballero, L. (2022). United States: the end of an illusion of omnipotence. The Conversation.
Chau, J. & Wang, A. (2023). “This is an issue that makes me very nervous”: John Mearsheimer on the US-China Rivalry. Oxford Political Review.
Cheong, H., Lyons, A., Houghton, R. & Majumdar, A. (2023). Secondary Qualitative Research Methodology Using Online Data within the Context of Social Sciences. International Journal of Qualitative Methods, 22, 1-19.
Costello, T.H., Bowes, S.M., Baldwin, M.W., Malka, A. & Tasimi, A. (2023). Revisiting the rigidity of the right hypothesis: A meta-analytic review, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 124 (5), 1025-1052.
Da-gyum, J. (2024). Allies face test with return of Trump’s transactional diplomacy. The Korea Herald.
Davlikanova, E. (2024). Ukraine Can Go Nuclear – Should it? Center for European Policy Analysis.
Drezner, D.W. (2025). Does the Madman Theory Actually Work? Foreign Policy.
Flint, C. (2025). Hegemonic Retreat: Transactionalism as Foreign Policy. Utah State University.
Foley, F. (2007). Between Force and Legitimacy: the Worldview of Robert Cooper. European University Institute Working Paper, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies.
Folk och Försvar. (2022). Robert Cooper on the European security order.
Friedhoff, K. (2024). Americans Largely Support Using US Troops to Defend Allies. The Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
Fry, E.H. (2007). The Decline of the American Superpower. The Forum, 5 (2), Article 3, 1-22.
Fukuyama, F. (1989).The End of History. The National Interest, 16, 3-18.
Gargan, E. (2025). Does Trump have more power than past presidents? – a visual timeline. The Guardian.
Goodby, J.E. (2005). Enlarge the North Korean Problem. Brookings.
Hine, C. (2011). Internet Research and Unobtrusive Methods. Social Research UPDATE, 61 (1), 1-4.
Hood, L. (2022). The End of History: Francis Fukuyama’s controversial idea explained. The Conversation.
Ibrahim, A. (2025). How Joe Biden’s failures over Ukraine have forced Donald Trump’s hand. The Scotsman.
Janning, J. (2018). Transactional by Default: EU-Turkey Relations in Search of a New Rationale. Turkish Policy Quarterly, 17 (1), 57-65.
Kim, S. & Aggarwal, M. (2025). Trump calls North Korea a ‘nuclear power’, drawing a rebuke from Seoul. NBC News.
Kim, T. & Lee, D.Y. (2023). Continuity and changes: the effects of Russia’s war against Ukraine on Japanese and South Korean nuclear-weapons discourse. The Nonproliferation Review, 30 (4-6), 265-284.
Kottasová, I. & Butenko, V. (2025). Here’s what’s in Trump’s Ukraine mineral deal and how it affects the war. CNN.
Marahrens, Sönke & Schröfl, J. (2024). The Russia-Ukraine Conflict From a Hybrid Warfare Cognitive Perspective. The Defense Horizon Journal.
Marquez, A. (2025). Trump says he’s ‘sick’ of how Zelenskyy has handled Ukraine’s war with Russia: ‘He has no cards’. NBC News.
Mengshoel A.M. & Sim, J. (2023). Metasynthesis: issues of empirical and theoretical context. Quality & Quantity, 57, 3339-3361.
Murray, C. (2025). Trump Suggests Russia Could Face Secondary Sanctions – As He Accuses Putin of ‘Tapping’ Him Along Over Ukraine War. Forbes.
Muzaffar, M., Yaseen, Z. & Rahim, N. (2017). Changing Dynamics of Global Politics: Transition from Unipolar to Multipolar World. Liberal Arts and Social Sciences International Journal, 1 (1), 49-61.
Nicholas, P. (2025).Trump’s Hostility toward Ukraine creates a conservative rift. NBC News.
Niemietz, K. (2024). Classics revisited: “The End of History?” by Francis Fukuyama (1989). Institute of Economic Affairs.
Novikov, I. (2025). Trump’s strength and unpredictability can help end the war in Ukraine, Zelenskyy says. Associated Press.
Onderco, M., Smetana, M. & Etienne, T.W. (2023) Hawks in the making? European public views on nuclear weapons post-Ukraine. Global Policy, 14, 305-317.
Pager, T. (2025). Trump’s Nobel Prize Obsession Is About More Than World Peace. The New York Times.
Pazzanese, C. (2025). No quick end to Russia-Ukraine war, analysts say. The Harvard Gazette.
Plagemann, J. & Destradi, S. (2024). How Unpredictable is Trump’s Foreign Policy Set to Be? German Institute for Global and Area Studies.
Pomeroy, G. & Wright, G. (2025). Trump calls Zelensky a ‘dictator’ as rift between two leaders deepens. BBC.
Rashid, R. (2025). Trump’s Ukraine retreat fuels South Korea nuclear arms debate. Nikkei Asia.
Rishko, V. (2025). Bound to Fail? The Limits of Diplomacy in the Russia-Ukraine War and the Future of European Security. Global Governance Institute.
Rogers, J. & Rowlands, K. (2025). Geostrategic Rethink. Internationale Politik Quarterly.
Sagan, S.D. (1994). The Perils of Proliferation: Organization Theory, Deterrence Theory, and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons. International Security, 18 (4), 66-107.
Schwartz, J.A. (2023). Madman or Mad Genius? The International Benefits and Domestic Costs of the Madman Strategy. Security Studies, 32 (2), 271-305.
Sechser, T.S. & Fuhrmann, M. (2017).The Madman Myth: Trump and the Bomb. The International Security Studies Forum Series.
Spencer, K. (2025). Is Trump’s Russia reset overshadowing the Ukraine peace process? Atlantic Council.
Spivey, M. (2025). Russian missile strikes hit ‘heart of Sumy’, as world reacts. BBC.
Steinberg, R.H. (2022). The Rise and Decline of a Liberal International Order, in Sloss, D.L. (ed.), Is the International Legal Order Unraveling? Oxford University Press.
Stokols, E. (2025).Trump vowed to end wars, equalize trade. He’s delivered something else. POLITICO.
Sullivan, K. (2024). Trump says he would encourage Russia to ‘do whatever the hell they want’ to any NATO country that doesn’t pay enough. CNN.
Tisdall, S. (2024). Joe Biden’s big blunder: how the war in Ukraine became a global disaster. The Guardian.
Transatlantic Task Force (2025). The Transactional Turn in U.S. Foreign Policy: Trump’s Ukraine Policy Shift and Its Implications for Asia-Pacific Alliances. Beyond the Horizon.
Vernet, D. (2003). Postmodern imperialism. Le Monde, Global Policy Forum.
Yi, S.W. (2025). How small powers can survive the era of transactional diplomacy. South China Morning Post.
Zaborowski, M. & Longhurst, K. (2003). America’s Protégé in the East? The Emergence of Poland as a Regional Leader. International Affairs, 79 (5), 1009-1028.
Zadorozhnyy, T. (2025). Trump blames Biden for provoking Russia’s war by supporting Ukraine’s NATO aspirations. The Kyiv Independent.
