NEUTRALITY IN THE CURRENT INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM – WHY IT IS LIKELY TO FALL INTO DISFAVOUR AMONG EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Abstract

Neutral countries have frequently been viewed as in certain respects constituting outliers when compared to states with more “traditional” foreign policy orientations. However, there have certainly been historical periods during which such nation-states have thrived and managed to preserve their sovereignty in the face of adversarial powers, in large part due to being consistent and predictable in sticking to neutrality, thus avoiding potentially costly entanglements in international armed conflicts. However, the 2020s have been beset by geopolitical turbulence due to a number of events, the most significant of which is Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine, that appear to be calling into question the viability of a continued reliance on neutrality as a foreign policy tool and as an identity construct from the standpoint of the vast majority of European countries. The paper utilizes qualitative methodology, which entails an integrated analysis of a wide array of (mostly contemporary) secondary sources that fall within the political science, sociology, and European studies disciplines. It advances a threefold argument. Firstly, it contends that the 2020s, to a large extent due to Russia’s actions in Ukraine and the increased assertiveness displayed by other world powers such as China, may be ushering in a paradigm shift in terms of the rules-based international order, as a result of which the international system is beginning to display characteristics in some respects typical of the more adversarial periods of the Cold War era, which is far from the most benevolent environment for the states that are inclined to tout their neutrality credentials. Secondly, the abovementioned developments, in particular the increasingly securitized environment, are generating endogenous and exogenous pressures that may encourage even countries such as Switzerland to reconsider the merits of neutrality as their default posture with regard to armed conflict and military alliances. Thirdly, the article looks at the situation in Ukraine, positing that true Ukrainian neutrality is no longer really a practical option for securing peace and resolving the conflict, with the term itself also in the process of acquiring a negative connotation in other Eastern European countries such as Moldova. In any case, while it would be too early to proclaim the end of neutrality, the political trends in many European countries do not paint a rosy picture with regard to the continued benefits expected to accrue from having a neutral status when it comes to international affairs.